分类归档 jsvdflv

Author Wang Yi

Produce a digital newspaper

When people think of Huawei, most of the labels they think of are made in China, chips, HarmonyOS, Huawei Cloud and so on.

Since its establishment in 1987, it entered the Fortune Global 500 for the first time with the ranking of 397th in 2010, becoming the only Fortune Global 500 company that has not been listed. By 2021, it has become the 44th Fortune Global 500 company and a giant that has been admired by China and even the world. The rapid rise of Huawei has attracted worldwide attention.

From the standpoint of reality, Huawei is indeed a successful enterprise. But when it was first established, it was just a small company in a dilapidated factory building in Shekou, Shenzhen, with a registered capital of only 21,000 yuan, and its main business was telecom equipment trade.

For more than 30 years, Huawei, like other enterprises, has been lost on the road of digital transformation; Different from other enterprises, in the current digital age, Huawei is no longer the enterprise that is struggling to walk on the road of digital transformation, but has turned into a "guide" on the road of digital transformation.

In 2018, Huawei followed the pace of the times and upgraded the company’s mission vision to "bring the digital world to everyone, every family and every organization, and build a smart world with the Internet of Everything".

Today, Huawei Cloud has become the second largest cloud service provider in China, and has become a solid base and assistant for the digital transformation of enterprises. From 20,000 yuan to trillions of market value, from a "second-hand trafficker" to a multinational giant, from a lost person on the road of digital transformation to a guide on the road of digital transformation, this role change is driven by Huawei’s own transformative power, and it is also a perfect answer sheet handed over under its digital transformation.

In the development of Huawei, digital transformation plays a very significant role in its important development period.

In essence, Huawei is a traditional enterprise. Unlike the BATZ Internet giant, Huawei itself has no genes of the Internet, and it has explored its own digital road step by step from traditional enterprises. Practice produces true knowledge, and the practical path of successful digital transformation is always much more useful than "digital experts" on paper. The experience of Huawei’s digital transformation is worth learning and learning from all enterprises.

So, how did Huawei put the digital transformation to the ground? What is the relationship between Huawei’s success and digital transformation?

First, informatization, the establishment of a fast runway

In 1987, Ren Zhengfei and five partners jointly invested 20,000 yuan to establish Huawei. During this period, Huawei mainly adopted the following strategy in product development strategy, first acting as an agent for products of Hong Kong companies, and then gradually evolved into a centralized strategy for independent product development. In the market competition strategy, we adopt the sales strategy of continuous development and production of a single product and encircling the city from the countryside, seize the market quickly through low-cost ways, expand the market share and expand the scale of the company.

1987-1997 was a period of strategic transformation for Huawei from "trade technology" to "technology industry and trade".

In 1991, Huawei began to design its own chips based on the demand of products. In 1992, it invested tens of millions of yuan in research and development. At the end of 1993, it successfully made the first chip, namely ASIC chip for C&C08 switch.

In 1994, Huawei successfully designed more than 30 chips. Among them, the most complex chip design accommodates more than 10 million transistors, and each chip can complete 32,000 telephone users’ non-blocking calls.

In this process, Huawei’s customers and businesses are all in China. With the increase of business volume, the management system can’t keep up with the development needs. So in 1992, Huawei began to develop its own management information system to replace the traditional manual business process, thus realizing local business automation.

At the same time, Huawei recognizes that introducing mature IT products and technologies to implement IT solutions can reduce investment risks and shorten the return period of investment. The complexITy of enterprise management software makes enterprises rely on their own strength to develop, which is very uneconomical in time, personnel and financial resources, so it is necessary to adopt the strategy of "introduction and management" to implement IT solutions.

So in 1994, when the local small application software independently developed by Huawei could no longer support the business, Huawei began to build the MRPII(Manufacture Resource Plan) system, that is, the manufacturing resource plan. It is a planning and control mode of production management, which is regarded as a standard management tool because of its remarkable benefits and is widely adopted by the world manufacturing industry.

Huawei finally chose the MRPII product of Oracle in the United States through software inspection and selection. Huawei is the first enterprise in China to adopt MRPII management mode, one or two years earlier than Lenovo. Lenovo’s MRPII system and OA system were built in 1996.

In 1995, Huawei OA system began to be built. At the end of the same year, Huawei introduced NOTES groupware system.

NOTES groupware system connects different users, especially users in different departments within the enterprise, through the network, thus improving the production efficiency. E-mail is a function of groupware, which encourages users to communicate and coordinate activities with each other. All users who enter the groupware system can communicate with each other in a timely and interactive manner, and transmit various messages, such as sound, graphics and video images.

In 1996, as the earliest user of ORACLE MRPII software in China, Huawei launched version R10.6, selected 13 core and basic functional modules, and realized "financial and business integration".

According to the independence of MRPII application system business, Huawei’s MRPII application system is divided into seven application environments: Huawei running environment (HW-CRP), Xinhua running environment (NHW-CRP), ring communication running environment (GT_CRP), Hong Kong Huawei running environment (HKHW-CRP), Huawei communication running environment (MBC-CRP) and Huawei testing environment (HW-CRP).

Huawei’s implementation of MRPII is very effective. At the initial stage of introduction, MRPII method has been applied in departmental business. For example, in the production planning management, according to the principle of MRPII, rolling backward and material demand analysis methods have been adopted, and good results have been achieved. The turnover rate of production inventory has increased from 2 to 3 times in the past year to 5 times.

With the comprehensive application and practice of MRPII timely production and process optimization, the production cycle of exchange equipment has been reduced from one month in the past to half a month.

In 1996, Huawei established the intranet and central database, and formed many new working methods on the basis of it. Advanced information technology makes Huawei’s operation more efficient. Employees and departments can communicate and exchange needed goods by visiting each other’s databases, web pages and bulletin boards.

It is more convenient to collect, archive and manage information, and it is very fast to retrieve and consult. The flow of information in an organization has become very rich, accurate and timely through the internal Internet.Convenient information collection and dissemination has improved Huawei’s organizational innovation and responsiveness, and the middle layer has been cut, which makes it possible to flatten the organization.

Through the first stage of information construction, Huawei’s business development bid farewell to inefficient manual work and established an information fast runway. The advantages of management informatization have laid the foundation for Huawei’s future electronic process management and full integration with IT.

Second, IPD went online and headed for "customer-centric"

In 1997, Huawei’s sales revenue was 4.1 billion yuan, ranking among the top 10 in China’s top 100 electronic companies, with more than 5,600 employees.

Some hidden problems are gradually exposed.

"When I first started my business, I was actually alone, and then some people kept coming in. There were no rules at all. For example, if I say, "How much salary do you get?", it’s settled. Of course, it will benefit some people and hurt some people. With the growing size of the company, it is necessary to draft a lot of documents to standardize the company, but I have no ability to draft documents. Personally, I am engaged in technical work in the army and have never been engaged in management work. However, we have to move forward, so we have drafted many documents, but we feel that these documents are not standardized, which is not conducive to Huawei’s growth into a big company. " Ren Zhengfei said.

In terms of R&D, Huawei didn’t have a mature R&D process and decision-making mechanism at that time, which led the marketing department to promise customers’ needs at random, and the R&D department was in a hurry to cope with it, and the products made were repeatedly revised. At one time, the company’s product version number was more than 1,000, which was chaotic in management and extremely inefficient.

One set of data is that Huawei invests 10% of its sales in product research and development every year, but the waste ratio of research and development expenses and product development cycle are more than twice the best level in the industry. Although Huawei’s sales have increased year after year, its gross profit margin has decreased year by year, and its per capita benefit is only 1/3 to 1/6 of that of Cisco and IBM.

Huawei awarded the "Golden Raspberry Award" to the R&D department and product line at the annual summary meeting of 10,000 people one year. Many products that were designed by R&D but not recognized by the market and directly turned into dead materials in the warehouse were sent to the R&D department leaders and product line directors in the form of "certificates".

At that time, many "innovative products" were blindly innovative from the source, and the product development process was to repeatedly do one thing at a low level, but it could not be done well at once. No matter the function, performance, product quality or product launch cycle, the developed products can not meet the requirements of customers. This has caused a lot of investment waste to the company, and the failed products have also greatly hit the R&D morale. Behind the seemingly prosperous, Huawei is beset with internal crises.

Obviously, the technology-centered approach can no longer be used, and it needs to be transformed into a customer-centered strategic positioning. How to make this increasingly large team achieve efficient cooperation is a difficult problem for Ren Zhengfei.

In 1998, Ren Zhengfei filled his pocket with $50,000 and embarked on a flight to the United States. This was later regarded as a great step for Huawei’s digitalization. In the United States, Ren Zhengfei found his own he is my brother-IBM. At that time, Louis Guo Shina had just completed drastic reforms and saved the huge IBM from the quagmire.

IBM’s path is obviously the template for Ren Zhengfei’s trip.At that time, Ren Zhengfei made up his mind that no matter how much time, money and energy he spent, Huawei should learn this set of things.

In the same year, on August 29th, 50 IBM consultants in suits and ties entered Huawei. Vowed to complete a series of major management reform projects within five years, such as integrated product development reform (IPD), integrated supply chain service reform (ISC), integrated financial service reform (IFS), and lead-to-return marketing reform (LTC).

Taking IPD as the breakthrough point, Huawei applied Product Data Management (PDM), which effectively integrated the company’s professional tools. Manage the final data generated by these tools, so that all product-related information and data can flow effectively throughout the company.

Practice has proved that through the introduction of IPD,On the one hand, the research and development cycle of Huawei products is shortened by half, and the failure rate is reduced by more than 95%; On the other hand, due to the full implementation of this standardized, digital and global asynchronous collaborative product development process and management system.

Third, create an "end-to-end" and globalize the layout of the delivery process

In 2002, shortly after the bursting of the Internet bubble, the global telecommunications market was in a state of decline. The domestic market share of Huawei’s mainstream products has exceeded 40%. For a customer, when choosing a supplier, one monopoly will not be allowed, because one monopoly is very unfavorable for risk prevention in the supply chain and business negotiations, and will be kidnapped by suppliers.

Therefore, Huawei’s growth in the traditional domestic market is weak.

The 2G wireless communication market that Huawei is eager to break through is firmly controlled by powerful international giants such as Ericsson and Nokia, and Huawei has encountered a "ceiling" of growth.

Although Huawei took the lead in developing 3G products among domestic manufacturers, due to various reasons such as shrinking investment, immature industrial chain and unclear 3G standards, domestic 3G licenses have been delayed. After waiting for 3 years, it was the listing of PHS.

This backward PHS wireless technology, with an average annual equipment market scale of about 20 billion yuan, has been built for four years. Together with the supporting mobile phone terminal market (about 20 billion yuan per year), it has expanded Huawei’s largest domestic competitors UT Starcom and ZTE, and they have used their profits to tackle 3G problems and promote overseas markets, and the gap with Huawei has gradually narrowed.

At the same time, important internal executives of Huawei "left" and took away more than 600 R&D backbones. Harbor Network Co., Ltd., which was formed by them, also entered the ranks of Huawei competitors.

In 2002, Huawei’s IPD management reform entered the deep water period, and the pain of reform intensified, but the financial results did not show. This year, Huawei experienced negative growth in history for the first time.

To make matters worse, at this time, Huawei had just occupied the beachhead position of "Asia, Africa and Latin America" in overseas markets, and international rival Cisco began to accuse Huawei of infringing its intellectual property rights in an attempt to stop Huawei’s overseas progress.

In front of Huawei, there is only one way to go, and that is to vigorously expand overseas markets.

Ren Zhengfei once admitted that if Huawei does not make its products cover the whole world as soon as possible, it will be a waste of investment and a loss of opportunities. He believes that we can’t wait until there is no problem before attacking, but we should be familiar with the market, win the market, and train and bring up cadres in the fight of overseas markets. If we can’t build an international team within three to five years, once the China market is saturated, Huawei will do nothing.

Since 2005, Huawei has sounded the charge for developed markets and strategic customers.

In this process, Huawei actively responded to the ISC reform and played a huge role in the face of the surge in overseas business and ensuring the large-scale and low-cost supply and delivery of overseas business. ISC reform extracts the common parts of supply chain processes into shared platforms, conducts centralized management, obtains cost advantages, standardizes digital platforms, and extends integrated supply chain processes to the whole world.

After three years’ efforts, the timely delivery rate of Huawei’s supply chain has increased from 20% at the beginning of management reform to 85%, and the processing efficiency of the supply chain has increased by 35%, ranking among the most efficient enterprises in the information and communication industry worldwide.

Therefore, international customers have full confidence in the quality and innovation of Huawei’s products, which has promoted Huawei to quickly open up a new situation in the international market, and enabled Huawei’s overseas business to quickly achieve a breakthrough in which more than 75% of its sales revenue came from overseas in 2008.

In 2009, Huawei became the second largest supplier in the field of communication in the world with an innovative record of annual sales of $30 billion.

There is a passage in the famous biographer Stefan Zweig’s masterpiece "When the Stars Shine": "A real moment with world historical significance, before a shining moment of human stars appears, there will inevitably be a long time passing away unnecessarily …"

The same is true of enterprise reform. Fortunately, when people talk about Huawei now, its IT architecture changes have made it a shining star.

Fourth, IT2.0 cloud strategy, enter the cloud computing

Walk from behind the scenes to the stage.

In 2010, in order to meet the challenge of global telecom demand becoming saturated and the arrival of big data wave, Huawei actively adjusted its product development strategy and focused on investing in strategic product areas such as 5G R&D and cloud computing. At the end of 2010, Huawei launched the "Yun Fan Plan" and officially announced its entry into cloud computing.

However, after more than 20 years of development, Huawei’s product research and development has moved from following imitation to international advanced, and from international advanced to global leading. It is an essential change of the innovation model for enterprises to move from followers to leaders, which means that Huawei must explore the future direction by itself, instead of catching up with others quickly.

In addition, the business growth of Huawei operators is slow, and the business scale of enterprises is small.

As a result, Huawei has placed strategic growth opportunities in the consumer business represented by smart phones. In order to promote the growth of consumer business, Huawei formally established three BG consumer businesses: operators, enterprises and consumers in 2011, and released the strategy of "cloud management".

At the same time, Huawei set up the 2012 laboratory to conduct basic original research, set up R&D centers in many countries and cities with intensive technical talents around the world, and recruited cutting-edge scientists, mathematicians and aestheticians in various fields around the world.

In the following years, Huawei launched a series of products and solutions based on cloud computing, and its servers, storage and distributed cloud data centers have accumulated a lot of user bases. The data shows that at present, Huawei has built more than 400 data centers around the world, including 120 cloud data centers.

However, at that time, Huawei’s role in the cloud computing market has always been a solution provider and belongs to the "behind-the-scenes hero".

But this situation changed soon.

On April 17, 2018, at the 15th Global Analyst Conference with the theme of "Building a Smart World with the Internet of Everything" held in Shenzhen. Focusing on ICT infrastructure and intelligent terminals, Huawei is determined to be a pioneer in the intelligent world, fully introducing artificial intelligence technology, enhancing the competitiveness of product solutions from all levels of cloud, management and end, and providing customers with a better experience. Xu Zhijun finally mentioned that at this Huawei Connect conference, Huawei will officially release a full-stack, full-scenario artificial intelligence solution.

At this point, Huawei officially stepped forward and entered the dispute with China’s cloud computing.

According to the data recently released by IDC, the public cloud market of China’s big data platform will reach 3.37 billion yuan in 2021, with Alibaba Cloud, Amazon Cloud Technology and Huawei Cloud among the top three.

Huawei’s digital transformation is a typical example of China manufacturing rushing to China to create.

After more than 30 years of hard work, Huawei started with digital management and built a management system dominated by process optimization, constantly optimizing non-value-added processes and value-added processes. Based on this,It has realized the transformation from communication to intelligent terminals, to cloud computing, smart cars and other industrial chains. It is the first batch of enterprises in China to complete digitalization, and it is also a model for most enterprises in China to carry out digital transformation management system.

　　Xiaomi SU7 car accident is still continuing to ferment. In addition to focusing on whether the door can’t be opened and the front of the car catches fire, a lot of attention is focused on whether the active safety functions such as emergency braking (AEB) of Xiaomi SU7 are triggered in the accident.

　　On the evening of April 1,The official once again issued a statement that Xiaomi SU7 Standard Edition has two sub-functions of forward anti-collision assistance, including collision warning (FCW) and emergency braking (AEB), which are targeted at vehicles, pedestrians and two-wheelers, and the working speed of AEB function is between 8-135 km/h. This function is similar to that of AEB with the same configuration in the industry. At present, it does not respond to obstacles such as cones, water horses, stones and animals.

　　In short, Xiaomi believes that the current AEB function does not support the identification of roadblocks in accidents, but it does not support the same configuration models in the industry.

　　In this regard, an intelligent driving industry person told reporters that construction roads will generally be marked on high-definition maps, and guiding NOA to divert will remind them to take over. If the intelligent driving system gives a certain weight to the real-time updated HD map, there is a certain probability to avoid the accident.

　　According to official information, the company just completed the full-scale promotion of "Xiaomi End-to-end Full Scene Intelligent Driving (HAD)" in February this year, indicating that "end-to-end user driving data training has been introduced, and on the basis of" no map ",the trajectory is more anthropomorphic, traffic is more efficient and driving is safer", and it is clear that HAD covers highways, urban expressways and so on.

　　The price of "no graph"

　　When discussing the boundary between intelligent driving ability and responsibility, we have to admit that even in the case of artificial driving, Xiaomi SU7 has a certain probability of distress in this German-Shanghai expressway accident.

　　According to Xiaomi’s notification, before the accident, the vehicle was in the state of NOA intelligent assisted driving and continued to drive at a speed of 116 km/h. Due to construction repairs, the road section was closed with roadblocks and diverted to the reverse lane.

　　At present, the official police report has not been made public. However, because the speed is too fast, and Deshang Expressway is located near Jiuhuashan Mountain, and the lighting situation at night is not good, whether the direct cause of the accident is caused by the vehicle hitting the roadblock at the high-speed NOA or the driver’s improper steering+braking after taking over is actually inconclusive (although Xiaomi may be to blame in both cases).

　　So, why can’t high-speed NOA recognize lane changes?

　　A person in the smart driving industry who did not want to be named told the reporter that this may be related to the fact that the smart driving system does not use high-precision maps, or the decision-making weight of maps in the smart driving system is too low.

　　"If the intelligent driving system uses a high-precision map, at least it will prompt the construction ahead, and then NOA’s route planning will be different," the person said, but pointed out that when dealing with the diversion, whether to continue NOA according to the new road or slow down and ask for takeover, each scheme may be different.

　　However, the interviewee also told reporters that road construction is divided into temporary construction and planned construction, and the planned construction will generally be uniformly marked on the road network, prompting the smart driver to change the route. But the temporary construction information is "not necessarily" uploaded.

　　Considering the risk of landslide caused by the geographical location of the German-Shanghai Expressway, the possibility of temporary construction is also great-however, the interviewee revealed to the reporter that according to his understanding, this construction is not temporary construction.

　　The reporter looked up the official subscription number of Xiaomi Automobile and found that at the early stage of Xiaomi SU7′ s release, the company publicized that it adopted the "light map" urban NOA scheme. However, in October last year, Xiaomi announced that it had pushed version 1.40 smart driving in large quantities, and made it clear that the NOA function of the city allowed vehicles to avoid construction.

　　However, on March 19 this year, the subscription number issued a document, saying that in February this year, the end-to-end full-scene intelligent driving function was fully pushed, and it was repeatedly emphasized that the intelligent driving system was "no map".

　　"Xiaomi’s plan is biased, and there is definitely no high-precision map at the bottom. Another system design is problematic." The aforementioned person pointed out to the reporter: "In fact, Cheluyun is a way to achieve automatic driving with the lowest collaborative cost."

　　Of course, car dealers flaunt "no map" not simply to reduce costs. According to the reporter’s understanding, the pure vision scheme will contradict the HD map that is not updated in time to a certain extent. In the choice of reference weight of intelligent driving system, in order to avoid the contradiction of reference data and make decision-making difficult, we will also give up high-precision maps on our own initiative.

　　The boundary of "pure vision"

　　Then, since we chose "no map" and emphasized perception, what about Xiaomi’s perception ability?

　　Back to the Xiaomi accident vehicle, from the sensor configuration point of view, the intelligent driving sensor configuration of the SU7 standard version Pilot Pro is two forward-looking, three upward-looking, four around-looking, a rear-looking camera and a forward millimeter-wave radar (of course, there are 12 ultrasonic radars, but the ultrasonic radar has insufficient performance and almost no weight in high-speed intelligent driving decision), commonly known as "9+1" configuration.

　　And this configuration is almost the same asThe plan is exactly the same. The HW 4.0 system is equipped with four side-looking cameras, three front-looking cameras at the top and a rear-looking camera at the tail, including a forward millimeter-wave radar at the front of the car, which is "7+1" configuration.

　　The intelligent driving decision-making system, which relies almost entirely on the camera, undoubtedly belongs to the so-called "pure vision scheme".

　　So, how reliable is the pure vision scheme? Can you handle unexpected emergencies?

　　Last year, the media conducted an in-depth report.Many casualties caused by opening FSD were exposed and analyzed.

　　In the report, FSD caused many "stupid" accidents, such as directly rushing out of the T-junction and chasing a police car with flashing warning lights. And one of the accidents is a typical warning to the pure vision scheme.

　　In this accident, the driver who started the automatic driving almost ran straight into the truck chassis that rolled over and heeled in three lanes at a medium speed of about 40-50 km/h around 3 am, causing the driver’s death. It is worth noting that, from the video, the rollover truck is huge in scale, close to three meters in height, while the lighting conditions on the road are acceptable, the speed is not fast, and the human eye can quickly capture and respond in time.

　　However, in the face of this simple emergency treatment from the perspective of natural persons, Tesla FSD, which was advertised as surpassing human driving ability, caused an accident.

　　The media quoted automobile engineering experts in colleges and universities as saying that the above-mentioned incidents may have occurred because Tesla could not identify the chassis characteristics of rollover trucks and mistook them for roads or backgrounds, so no emergency treatment was carried out.

　　This also brings a soul torture to the pure visual route: pure visual intelligent driving not only needs to know cars, but also needs to know things, not only pedestrians, pets, or even suddenly dumped goods-more unexpected irregular objects may become the culprit of traffic accidents.

　　Judging from Xiaomi’s reply, AEB system really can’t give feedback on the diversion obstacles such as cones, water horses, stones and animals. However, Xiaomi officially insists that AEB, a "friend", can’t do it either.

　　But the problem is that the standard version of Xiaomi SU7The number of equipment is almost "stingy" compared with that of friends at the same price, and the decision-making also depends entirely on pure visual ability, so it is obviously not convincing to compete with AEB system alone.

　　According to the data of knowing the car emperor, in the same price model, such as the ideal L6 intelligent driving sensing configuration is almost the same as that of Xiaomi SU7-but more include007, Tucki P7,Each configuration version of Han EV and Seal is equipped with at least 5 millimeter-wave radars and 1.; At least three or more millimeter-wave radars are equipped on the models of Wujie M5/M7 and Tucki P7+.

　　In other words, compared with "friends", the security redundancy of Xiaomi SU7 Standard Edition is far from enough.

　　"The training of a qualified driver, in addition to road traffic rules and driving skills training, relies more on the accumulation of intangible life experience to gain the ability to cope with emergencies. This is precisely the gift of life to mankind, and it is alsoAt present, it is far from the realm. We may be able to achieve pure vision in the future, but we should not train intelligence through accident accumulation. "The person from the aforementioned listed company told reporters:" Lei Jun (Xiaomi) may not be washed this time. "

0one

Driver’s safety awareness is weak.

02

Poor vehicle safety

0three

Lack of security

Operation of China Purchasing Managers Index in December 2019
National bureau of statistics service industry survey center
china federation of logistics & purchasing

I. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index of China Manufacturing Industry

In December 2019, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.2%, which was the same as last month.

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and that of medium-sized enterprises was 51.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from last month. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was above the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point.

From the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.

The production index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production expansion of manufacturing enterprises continued to accelerate.

The new order index was 51.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month and above the critical point for two consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.

The raw material inventory index was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing industry decreased.

The employee index was 47.3%, which was the same as last month, indicating that the employment boom of manufacturing enterprises was stable.

The delivery time index of suppliers was 51.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was accelerated.

II. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index for Non-manufacturing Industries in China

In December 2019, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry maintained an overall expansion trend and its growth rate slowed down.

By industry, the business activity index of service industry was 53.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity index of railway transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, financial services, leasing and business services industries is above 55.0%, and business activities are relatively active; The business activity index of wholesale industry, real estate industry and other industries is located in the contraction range. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from last month, and maintained a high level of prosperity.

The new order index was 50.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month and above the critical point. In terms of industries, the new order index of service industry was 50.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month; The new order index of the construction industry was 52.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from last month.

The input price index was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the overall increase of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities narrowed. In terms of industries, the price index of service inputs was 52.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month; The price index of construction inputs was 53.0%, down 3.3 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 50.3%, which was 1.0 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it was still above the critical point, indicating that the overall sales price level of non-manufacturing industries increased slightly compared with last month. In terms of industries, the sales price index of service industry was 49.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month; The sales price index of the construction industry was 52.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month.

The employee index was 48.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point. In terms of industries, the index of service industry employees was 47.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; The index of employees in the construction industry was 50.7%, down 4.8 percentage points from last month.

The expected index of business activities is 59.1%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it is still in a high boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the future market development. In terms of industries, the expected index of service business activities was 59.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 59.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from last month.

Third, the operation of China’s comprehensive PMI output index

In December 2019, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises maintained an overall expansion trend.

annotations

1. Interpretation of main indicators

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical summary of the monthly survey results of purchasing managers of enterprises. It covers all aspects of purchasing, production and circulation of enterprises, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing fields. It is one of the leading indexes used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends and has strong forecasting and early warning functions. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index that reflects the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, and when PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; Below 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.

2. Scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories and 3,000 survey samples in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2017); There are 37 major categories of non-manufacturing industries and 4000 survey samples.

3. Investigation methods

The purchasing manager adopts PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, taking manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries as the layer, and the sample size of industries is distributed according to the proportion of their added value to the total added value of manufacturing or non-manufacturing, and the samples in the layer are extracted with the probability proportional to the main business income of the enterprise.

This survey was specifically organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics, and a monthly questionnaire survey was conducted on the purchasing managers of enterprises by using the national statistical network direct reporting system.

4. Calculation method

(1) Calculation method of classification index. The survey index system of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry includes 13 sub-indexes, such as production, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price of main raw materials, ex-factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and business activities expectation, etc. The survey index system of purchasing managers in non-manufacturing industry includes 10 sub-indexes, such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, inventory, input prices, sales prices, employees, supplier delivery time and business activity expectations. The classification index adopts the diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises that answer positively plus half of the percentage that answers unchanged. Because there is no composite index for non-manufacturing industries, the international business activity index is usually used to reflect the overall changes of non-manufacturing economic development.

(2) The calculation method of manufacturing PMI index. Manufacturing PMI is weighted by five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five classification indexes and their weights are determined according to their leading influence on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index with a weight of 30%; Production index with a weight of 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index with a weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index, with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, which is inversely calculated when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.

(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, and the weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP respectively.

5. Seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is influenced by seasonal factors and the data fluctuates greatly. The published indexes are all seasonally adjusted data.

　　Yesterday (December 12), the Central Network Information Office issued the "Notice on Launching the Special Action of" Clearing and Rectifying the Bad Orientation of Short Video Information Content ".

　　According to the special action arrangement of "Clear and Clear" series in 2023, the Central Network Information Office launched a one-month special action of "Clear and Clear, Rectify the Bad Orientation of Short Video Information Content" from yesterday. The special action focuses on the frequent chaos in the field of short video, focusing on rectifying the poor guidance of three types of short video information content.

　　The first category is the problem of short video spreading false information. 1. Make a fake short video by posing. Make and publish rumors about people’s livelihood. Fabricate a plot to help the disadvantaged groups in society and consume public sympathy. Posing at the scene of an emergency, fabricating false scenes and spreading panic. 2. Technology generates false short videos. Using artificial intelligence and other technologies to fabricate and splice content, illegally using other people’s portraits and voices for face replacement or voice synthesis, and generating false short videos. 3. Disregarding facts and tampering with fraud. Tampering with official authoritative information or taking it out of context.

　　The second category, short video shows misconduct. 1. "erotic rubbing" behavior. Deliberately display actions with sexual hints or teasing, and publish "soft pornography", "rubbing" and "yellowing" content. Using the name of college students to produce and disseminate "soft pornography" information and conduct vulgar marketing. 2. Create vulgar people. Through short video special effects and props, we deliberately dress up as ugly, create vulgar people in the name of "cross-dressing", and challenge the public aesthetics without a bottom line. 3. online celebrity malicious marketing. Online celebrity anchor gains traffic by any means through uncivilized interaction and irrational expression. Abuse of influence to incite fans’ emotions and organize fans to maliciously "irrigate". Release information on marketing fake and shoddy goods to mislead consumers. 4. Show high-risk behaviors. Publish and disseminate bad information that causes physical and mental discomfort, such as suicide, self-harm and cruelty to animals. Show high-risk behaviors that ignore life safety, such as high-altitude parkour and speed racing.

　　The third category is the problem of short video communication misconceptions. 1. Challenge the bottom line of public cognition. Deliberately infringing on national customs and habits, inciting national hatred or regional discrimination. Spreading wrong views on marriage and love, deliberately creating gender opposition. 2. Spread the wrong value orientation. Spreading wrong career views, advocating unscrupulous and negative world-weariness, and spreading wrong values such as showing off wealth and worshipping money and extravagant enjoyment.

　　The Central Network Information Office said that it will strengthen the short video platform management optimization recommendation mechanism. Efforts should be made to solve the problems such as the deviation of value orientation of short video platform algorithm and the insufficient presentation of high-quality short video. Optimize the traffic distribution mechanism to prevent "emphasizing indicators over quality", and unilaterally use quantitative indicators such as praise rate and forwarding rate as the basis for traffic distribution. Strengthen the platform audit. Efforts should be made to solve the problems of nonstandard audit mechanism and insufficient comprehensive audit standards for short video platforms. Prevent oversimplification or across-the-board review and manual review from going through the motions. It is necessary to adhere to the problem orientation, focus on the problems reflected by the people in the short video field, focus on the protection of the rights and interests of special groups such as minors and the elderly, and fully implement the rectification task.

　　Text/reporter Wen Wei Coordinator/Yu Meiying

　　Feng Zijian, executive vice president and secretary general of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, said that the real-world research on the preventive effect of domestic vaccines inoculated in Hong Kong and mainland China showed that Chinese vaccines still had a good protective effect on severe illness and death caused by Omicron mutant.

　　Feng Zijian introduced that at present, many technical routes in China have developed univalent and multivalent Omicron mutant vaccines. The univalent inactivated vaccine of Omicron mutant has been approved by clinical trials, and clinical trials are being carried out in Zhejiang, Hunan and Hongkong. The tetravalent recombinant protein vaccine, which has made rapid progress, has been approved for phase III clinical trial in UAE, and related research has been started. In addition, the research on broad-spectrum COVID-19 vaccine has been laid out, and the vaccine with rapid progress has been approved for clinical trials, and related research has been started.

　　Generally speaking, the research and development of Omicron mutant vaccine in China is progressing steadily and rapidly. As long as it is necessary and in accordance with the requirements of relevant laws and regulations, emergency use procedures can be quickly started to provide vaccination. As to whether and when to vaccinate the vaccine specifically targeting Omicron mutant, this issue is being studied not only in China but also internationally, mainly to judge the situation of virus mutation and immune escape. (Reporter Gu Tiancheng, Dong Ruifeng)

General Office of Emergency Management Department on Issuing

Outline of Vocational Qualification Examination for Intermediate Registered Safety Engineer

Notice of the Outline of the Professional Qualification Examination for Junior Registered Safety Engineers

Emergency room [2019] No.43

In order to do a good job in the professional qualification examination of intermediate and junior registered safety engineers, in accordance with the provisions of the professional qualification system of registered safety engineers and the implementation measures of the professional qualification examination of registered safety engineers (emergency [2019〕eightNo.), the Emergency Management Department organized the compilation of the Outline of the Professional Qualification Examination for Intermediate Registered Safety Engineers and the Outline of the Professional Qualification Examination for Junior Registered Safety Engineers, which were approved by the Ministry of Commerce, Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Transport and approved by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and are now issued for implementation.

Attachment:

1.Outline of occupation qualification examination for intermediate registered safety engineer

2.Outline of professional qualification examination for junior registered safety engineer

General office of emergency management department

2019yearfourmoon19sun

　　Cctv newsOn January 14th, 2020, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a press conference for the fourth quarter of 2019. The heads of the Employment Promotion Department, the Vocational Capacity Building Department, the Pension Insurance Department, the Labor Security Supervision Bureau and the Information Center answered questions from reporters.

　　The reporter asked, can you specifically introduce the effect of the policy of reducing social insurance rates in 2019? Are there any new measures to reduce fees in the next step?

　　Nie Mingxi, Director of the Pension Insurance Department of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, introduced that on April 1, 2019, after the General Office of the State Council issued the Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Rates, all localities actively implemented it, and the work progressed very smoothly, with obvious results, which were mainly reflected in the following four aspects:

　　First, all policies and measures have been put in place. From May 1, 2019, all the 29 provinces and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as the basic endowment insurance units of government agencies and institutions, whose contribution rate is higher than 16%, have reduced to 16%. The provinces continued to reduce unemployment insurance rates in stages, and 26 provinces that met the conditions for reducing fees continued to reduce industrial injury insurance rates in stages. At the same time, the provinces have adjusted the payment base policy according to the actual situation, and the lower limit of the payment base has generally decreased, further reducing the payment burden of difficult enterprises and their employees, and further improving the flexibility of flexible employees in choosing the payment base.

　　Second, the annual fee reduction target was exceeded. In 2015, the total premium rate of five social insurances for employees was 41%, and then it was reduced six times. Last year, it was the largest reduction. At present, the total premium rate of five social insurances has dropped to 33.95%, of which the unit premium rate has dropped to 23.45%, and the six fee reductions have decreased by 7.05 percentage points. According to the latest statistics, in 2019, the expenses of basic old-age insurance, unemployment insurance and industrial injury insurance for enterprise employees were reduced by 425.2 billion yuan, exceeding the target of 310 billion yuan at the beginning of the year. The previous five fee reductions totaled 550 billion yuan. Together with the total fee reductions last year, social insurance fees have been reduced by nearly one trillion yuan since 2015.

　　Third, the effect of reducing the burden on enterprises is obvious. The fee reduction policy has strong inclusiveness and wide benefits, and the burden reduction effect is direct and effective. Both large and medium-sized enterprises and small and micro enterprises generally have a real sense of gain. Since the second half of last year, many media have intensively covered the feelings and effects of fee reduction at the grassroots level. Enterprises generally reported that the fee reduction policy has effectively reduced the labor cost of enterprises, and the fee reduction bonus has been transformed into the driving force for enterprise development and innovation, or into employee welfare to enhance enterprise cohesion, realize enterprise cost reduction, market vitality and employee benefits, which has been welcomed by the majority of enterprises and employees. At the same time, the social security rate is basically unified throughout the country, which has played a positive role in promoting the formation of a fair market competition environment and promoting balanced development among regions.

　　The fourth is to promote the sound development of the old-age insurance system. According to the latest monthly statistics, in 2019, the total income of enterprise basic endowment insurance fund was 3,783 billion yuan, the total expenditure was 3,463.1 billion yuan, the current balance was 319.9 billion yuan, and the accumulated balance was 5,086.9 billion yuan. It is a very gratifying situation that we can still achieve a balance of more than 300 billion yuan in the current period under the circumstances that the fee reduction has exceeded expectations and the basic pension level of retirees has been further improved. It fully shows that after the fee reduction, the threshold for participating in insurance payment has been lowered, the vitality of enterprises has been enhanced, and the enthusiasm of participating units and individuals has been improved, which has not only stabilized and promoted employment, but also achieved reasonable growth in fund income, which has promoted a virtuous circle of enterprise development and pension insurance system development. At the same time, through measures such as compacting the responsibilities of provincial governments, increasing the proportion of central fund transfers, and increasing support for provinces with special difficulties, the structural contradiction of funds between provinces has been effectively alleviated, ensuring that basic pensions are paid in full and on time.

　　In 2020, the State Council decided to reduce unemployment insurance and industrial injury insurance rates in stages for another year. It is a long-term strategic arrangement to reduce the old-age insurance rate to 16%, and Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will further consolidate the results of the fee reduction.

　　Mass entrepreneurship and innovation are strategic choices under the situation of "three phases" of China’s economic and social development, which is not only a major reform measure to fully stimulate the wisdom and creativity of hundreds of millions of people, but also an important way to achieve national prosperity and people’s prosperity; It is not only a scientific choice to improve the efficiency of spatial and temporal redistribution of production factors, but also an inevitable choice for people to move from an economic power to an economic power. However, mass entrepreneurship is a systematic project. To set off a wave of mass entrepreneurship in the whole society, we need to have and solve the following four key factors:

　　One is the human factor. To form the situation of mass entrepreneurship, people, as the main body of entrepreneurship, must meet two conditions: they must have a strong entrepreneurial will; Have enough entrepreneurial ability. The stimulation of entrepreneurial will needs to form a strong cultural atmosphere of entrepreneurship and innovation in the whole society, respect innovation, advocate entrepreneurship, respect talents, protect the rights and interests of talents, and tolerate entrepreneurial failure. Encourage people to stress morality, value honesty, abide by the rule of law, and abide by contracts, so that innovation and entrepreneurship will become a common way of life, and the public will pay attention to entrepreneurship, think about entrepreneurship and be willing to practice entrepreneurship. It is necessary to increase publicity and recognition of typical entrepreneurship and give play to the role of demonstration. Moreover, the cultivation of entrepreneurial ability needs to start with education, change from exam-oriented education to quality education, strengthen employment guidance and entrepreneurship education for college graduates, implement the college students’ entrepreneurship leading plan, and support college graduates to start businesses in emerging industries. Governments at all levels should encourage and support the development of entrepreneurship counseling and training institutions, so that more willing entrepreneurs can improve their entrepreneurial ability and their chances of success.

　　The second is the factor of capital. Mass entrepreneurship, especially "grassroots entrepreneurship", is often based on self-owned funds or raising funds from relatives and friends, but the risk of entrepreneurship is relatively high. Once entrepreneurship fails, entrepreneurs and their families will fall into life difficulties. Therefore, whether the external financing channels of venture capital are smooth has become the key factor for the formation of mass entrepreneurship wave. First of all, the government can set up a "venture fund for mass entrepreneurship" to ensure the continuous chain of funds for the follow-up development of entrepreneurship, and to really help the horse, it is necessary to send a ride. This year, the state plans to allocate 40 billion yuan to guide the start-up of emerging industries. How to manage and improve the efficiency of the use of funds is worthy of our consideration. Second, carry out financial structure reform. The existing financial structure tends to be higher and heavier. It is suggested that a part of the financial structure should be dedicated to serving entrepreneurs. For example, more standardized small and medium-sized banks can be established to serve entrepreneurs. Large funds managed by the state should increase the proportion of investment in innovation and entrepreneurship. In addition, entrepreneurs should be encouraged and supported to adopt equity financing, so as to make social funds flow from virtual economy to real economy.

　　The third is the factor of entrepreneurial opportunities. The search and grasp of entrepreneurial opportunities depends on the ability of entrepreneurs to search and recognize entrepreneurial information and opportunities, and on the supply ability of government entrepreneurial opportunities. From the government’s point of view, there are at least four aspects to be done: First, increase the publicity and interpretation of the existing innovation and entrepreneurship policies, so that entrepreneurs can learn more about the cultivation and support that innovation and entrepreneurship can obtain, and enhance the chances and confidence of entrepreneurial success. Second, the key to opening up the channel of transformation of scientific and technological achievements is to speed up the reform of the use and disposal of scientific and technological achievements and revenue management, so that scientific and technological personnel are willing to innovate, start businesses and transform, encourage all kinds of innovations, directly use them for entrepreneurship, participate in entrepreneurship through cooperation, and promote entrepreneurship through transfer. Innovation will inevitably lead to mass entrepreneurship. Third, create a fair and orderly market environment, change more "preferential" policies into "inclusive" policies, break some industry monopolies, reduce market access, and cancel unnecessary industry restrictions. For the innovation of some new formats and business models, we should give legal protection, protect, standardize and supervise them, promote fair competition and maintain market order. Fourth, accelerate social innovation, guide and support the establishment of social enterprises, realize cross-border cooperation among the government, enterprises, non-profit organizations and the media, solve social problems such as youth education, old-age care, women’s employment difficulties, and safeguarding the human rights of the disabled, and provide more channels and opportunities for mass entrepreneurship.

　　The fourth is the policy system factor. Policy system is the condition and guarantee factor of mass entrepreneurship, so it is necessary to create conditions and environment for mass entrepreneurship, and clear the obstacles to entrepreneurship instead of setting obstacles. First, the government decentralizes profits to do "subtraction", promotes decentralization, simplifies administrative examination and approval procedures, and promotes the facilitation of investment and entrepreneurship. Second, formulate a classified and guided entrepreneurship policy system. At present, the concepts of innovation and entrepreneurship are usually blurred. In fact, even innovation is not the same as high-tech industry. Innovation also includes technological innovation, management innovation, model innovation, format innovation, market innovation, etc. At present, policy support or capital supply tend to be innovative and entrepreneurial in high-tech industries, while ignoring other industries and groups. Mass entrepreneurship is mostly "grass-roots" entrepreneurship, lacking high-tech support, and mostly related to traditional industries. However, these entrepreneurship may involve innovation in business format and mode, especially the application of "internet plus". Similar entrepreneurship has important contributions and significance for increasing employment and expanding domestic demand. Therefore, formulating a classified and guided entrepreneurship policy system can better stimulate the enthusiasm of mass entrepreneurship. Third, further promote the reform of financing system, taxation and circulation system, increase entrepreneurial opportunities in service industries, and provide convenient conditions for entrepreneurship in other industries. Improve the construction of legal environment, strengthen supervision after the event, punish illegal acts according to law, protect intellectual property rights, and establish a market environment of honest operation and fair competition. Further improve the policy system that is conducive to mass entrepreneurship, and implement and improve the cultivation and support policies that encourage mass entrepreneurship, such as tax reduction and exemption, small loan guarantee, capital subsidy, and venue arrangement.Form a new mechanism that the government supports entrepreneurship, the society supports entrepreneurship, and the public is willing to start a business and dares to start a business.

　　Source: Qiushi

　　At present, the game between the United States and Russia is getting worse and worse, which has attracted worldwide attention. The United States and Russia are deadlocked on the Syrian issue. In addition, anti-missile, nuclear disarmament and cyber security in Ukraine and Eastern Europe have also become flashpoints between the two countries. As a result, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov bluntly said that "the US-Russia relationship has undergone fundamental changes, and the United States has not only made anti-Russian remarks, but also taken aggressive actions that pose a threat to Russian security."

　　As Lavrov said, the relationship between the United States and Russia has indeed changed. Is this the beginning of the "new cold war"? Some analysts believe that US-Russian relations have indeed entered a "new historical trough", and the two sides have comprehensively torn apart in various fields. Some media believe that the game between the United States and Russia is more like a "nerve war" of mutual pressure, each testing the other’s bottom line, but always maintaining a state of "fighting without breaking".

　　The game between the United States and Russia is getting worse and worse.

　　Recently, Russia’s relations with the United States and other western countries have turned sharply. Due to the escalation of contradictions between the United States and Russia on the Syrian issue, the United States announced the termination of contacts with Russia on the Syrian issue. The two sides immediately launched infighting at all levels to closely safeguard their own interests.

　　On October 3, the United States announced that it would suspend negotiations with Russia on the Syrian ceasefire and shelve its military plan to jointly fight terrorists with Russia.

　　Then, Russia sent more troops to Syria, the Russian State Duma passed a resolution to turn the Tartus port base into a permanent naval base, and the Russian Federal Council also approved the Russian air and space forces to station in Syria indefinitely. The Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov even came to the eastern Mediterranean to help defend the Russian troops and Syrian government forces stationed in Syria.

　　United Nations confrontation

　　On October 8, when the United Nations Security Council voted on two draft resolutions on Syria, the draft jointly drafted by France and Spain was rejected by Russia, while the draft proposed by Russia was rejected by France, Britain and the United States. The confrontation at the United Nations made the contradiction between Russia and western countries more open, and Putin cancelled his visit to France in a rage.

　　In the face of the western siege, Putin made a "combination boxing" and tried to break through: reopening Cuba’s listening station, returning to Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam (these two places were the front positions of confrontation between the former Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War), and even deploying iskander missiles with nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad, an enclave between Lithuania and Poland.

　　Fight "cyber warfare"

　　Of course, the United States has not spared Russia, and it has fought a "war of words" with it in cyberspace.

　　The U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence named and accused the Russian government of being involved in hacking activities with the intention of interfering in the U.S. election. On the 14th, US Vice President Biden confirmed the plan of "cyber war" against Russia to the American media, and this incident was even more noisy.

　　In response, Russian officials responded strongly, saying that the US’s "cyber war" against Russia is a state cyber terrorism act and a direct threat to Russia.

　　The new iron curtain began to return from the cold war?

　　"Is the Cold War back?" Some British media said that with the escalation of verbal threats and actions of the United States and Russia, a new iron curtain began to come, and the competition between the United States and Russia for geostrategic advantages increased rather than decreased, giving people the feeling of the cold war.

　　However, analysts pointed out that despite the all-round confrontation between the two sides, the two countries have not entered the "new cold war." With its current economic size, Russia is unable to confront the United States, what’s more, neither Russia nor the United States has the will to mobilize the strength of the whole country to start a new cold war. At the same time, there are many contradictions between western countries, and there is no one voice to the outside world, so it is impossible to form a confrontation between groups of countries during the Cold War.

　　The general consensus of analysts is that, as nuclear powers with equal strength, even in the most intense stage of confrontation in history, Russia and the United States will avoid direct armed conflicts caused by accidental fire.

　　The United States and Russia fought a "nerve war" and put pressure on each other to "fight without breaking"

　　Although it is unlikely to return to the cold war pattern, some media believe that the game between the United States and Russia is more like a "nerve war" of mutual pressure, and it has always maintained a state of "fighting without breaking".

　　Russia’s "Viewpoint" published a commentary on the 12th, arguing that Russia-US relations have repeatedly experienced high-intensity collisions, such as fierce confrontation after the Ukrainian crisis, but both sides can return to a relatively peaceful state every time after the collision. This continuous contest is actually a "nerve war" that exerts pressure on each other.

　　According to the recent confrontation between the two countries in various fields, including conflicts between the United States and Russia in other countries involving their own interests, diplomatic notes, war of words, sanctions and anti-sanctions, and freezing relations in a certain field, but at the same time maintaining relations in other equally important fields. In this game, the two sides no longer compete for ideological victory, but closely safeguard their respective sovereign interests. Because of this, the two sides can always maintain relative restraint and dare not talk about war easily. Therefore, some Russian media believe that the two sides should find a way to ease the relationship despite the intensity and high risk. (Editor: Xue Bili’s text is compiled from Xinhuanet and Workers’ Daily)