On July 1st, the Japanese government, which just finished the G20 reception, suddenly announced that it would restrict the export of three kinds of semiconductor materials to South Korea. According to Reuters’s report, Japan may impose this sanction as early as July 4th.
On the afternoon of the same day, the first official (deputy minister) of the South Korean Foreign Ministry, Zhao Seung-young, summoned the Japanese ambassador to South Korea and protested to him. South Korea’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Resources Cheng Yunmo said that he would consider resorting to the World Trade Organization.
According to the analysis of Nikkei Chinese Network, the semiconductor materials involved in this sanction are all materials for making TV and smart phone components. Japanese suppliers have an absolute dominant share in the market of these materials. Once the sanctions take effect, it will be difficult for Korean buyers to find alternative supply channels in the market, which will inevitably bring potential impacts to companies such as Samsung and LG in South Korea, and may also affect some Japanese manufacturers, which will have huge side effects in the long run.
At the moment when South Korea’s economic performance is not optimistic, how much impact Japan’s sanctions will have on South Korea’s economy has become a concern of many parties. According to Yonhap News Agency’s report on July 1, the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources of the Republic of Korea said on the same day that due to factors such as semiconductor and sluggish exports to China, South Korea’s exports in June decreased by 13.5% year-on-year to US$ 44.18 billion, showing a downward trend for seven consecutive months, and the decrease rate reached a new high in three years and five months.
However, there are also views that Japan’s sanctions are rare, but they are not intended to make South Korea "hurt." Hu Lingyuan, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Fudan University, believes that this round of diplomatic turmoil between Japan and South Korea can be understood from the perspectives of historical issues between Japan and South Korea and their respective domestic politics.
Sanctions and countermeasures are still measured, but the business community has begun to worry.
In addition to the semiconductor industry, according to the Nikkei Chinese website, Japan also plans to remove South Korea from the "white list" of friendly countries in security protection in August.
According to the above report, Japan will strengthen South Korea’s export control in two stages. First, after July 4th, three products, fluorinated polyimide, photoresist and etching gas (hydrogen fluoride), are required to be licensed and examined separately. And it is planned to exclude South Korea from the "white list" of friendly countries in security in August.
According to the report, the list includes 27 countries including the United States, Germany and France, and South Korea will be the first country to be eliminated. If it is not on the list, the products that may be transferred to the military need to be approved by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry when they are exported, and electronic parts, precision parts, machine tools, etc. are all controlled objects.
However, although the volume is not small, it seems that the leaders of Japan and South Korea have no intention of completely "freezing" the relations between the two countries.
"The semiconductor industry is not a particularly sophisticated field. Abe beat South Korea in this field and expressed his dissatisfaction, which can convey a kind of ‘ I’ll punish you for doing something wrong ’ The signal. It’s like having a bad breath. " Hu Lingyuan said.
Regarding the export control this time, Keisuke Yusheng Tian, executive director of Deloitte Management Consulting Company in Japan, said that "since it is an area where Japan can make its own judgment, it is estimated that it will not violate the rules of the World Trade Organization". However, Professor Fuyong Youxia of Waseda University thinks: "This is a measure in a gray area suspected of violating WTO rules".
"In fact, after Japan took the initiative to sanction, South Korea was a bit passive. It seems to be a loss to overthrow the agreement before, and South Korea’s domestic economy is not performing well now. In order to lose points, the Moon Jae in administration must fight back against Japan. " Hu Lingyuan analyzed that "South Korea will take some retaliatory measures, but it will be restrained. In fact, Japan’s sanctions are also moderate. Both sides have a deep concern for their domestic people ‘ Show ’ The ingredients will not really cause particularly deep harm to each other. "
In fact, many international factors also restrict the severity of Japan-South Korea bad relations. Japan has just finished the reception for the G20 Osaka Summit, and seems unwilling to be too "high-profile" when imposing sanctions on South Korea.
"The reason why sanctions are announced now is because Japan does not want this matter to affect the G20 meeting." Li Kaisheng told The Paper, "When all countries are opposed to the unilateralism of the United States, as the host of the G20, Japan does not want to affect its image because of sanctions."
"In addition, Abe can’t make Japan-ROK relations too rigid, and we must grasp the balance." Hu Lingyuan analyzed and said, "On the one hand, Abe wants to make some noise, but on the other hand, he can’t overdo it. In that case, it is difficult to score in China."
At the moment when the situation on the peninsula is easing, the factors of the United States and North Korea are also variables that cannot be ignored when the Abe government makes decisions.
"Abe must also take into account the feelings of Trump and Kim Jong-un. Trump just met with Kim Jong-un. In the context of the easing of the situation on the peninsula, Japan also wants to improve relations with North Korea. In Kim Jong-un’s view, Moon Jae in’s efforts to improve North-South relations are relatively positive. Under this circumstance, if Abe is too tough on South Korea, Kim Jong-un will not feel very happy. " Hu Lingyuan said.
However, the industry has begun to worry about the follow-up impact of sanctions.
According to the Nikkei Chinese website, the relevant person of SK Hynix said in an interview that the inventory was "less than 3 months". When asked, "If we can’t purchase more, will the factory stop production in three months?", the answer was "Yes".
Samsung Electronics evaded the specific instructions and only said that it was "investigating the situation in detail".
On the other hand, however, Korean companies have a high market share in the semiconductor field. In terms of semiconductor sales, South Korea’s Samsung Electronics topped the list, while SK Hynix ranked third. Especially in the storage semiconductor for data storage, Korean companies have strong advantages. A large Japanese electromechanical company is worried that "if the supply of storage semiconductors in South Korea stagnates, which will lead to a reduction in the production of Apple’s iPhone, it may also have an impact on the supply of parts and components of the company".
Sanctions have obvious symbolic significance, and both sides focus on internal affairs.
"Japan chose the semiconductor industry to start, which is mainly a symbolic act. It is not that Japan and South Korea will soon be in the semiconductor industry ‘ Go to war ’ Yes. " Hu Lingyuan told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn), "Abe’s action is first considered for the Senate election in late July."
The Senate election to be voted on July 21st is the first parliamentary election in Japan since the era of "making peace". Abe attaches great importance to this election. According to Xinhua News Agency, Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is continuing to seek to amend Article 9 of the Constitution, so it regards constitutional amendment as one of the focuses of the Senate election. One of the highlights of the election is whether the forces supporting constitutional amendment can continue to maintain a two-thirds advantage in the Senate. However, Japan’s Kyodo News reported at the end of June that there are currently 78 people in the Senate who support constitutional amendment without re-election, and Abe still needs to win the support of 86 people to form a two-thirds advantage. Therefore, it is difficult to cross the threshold of constitutional amendment as it was three years ago.
In addition, just on the 25th of last month, Shinzo Abe just faced a cabinet no-confidence resolution jointly submitted by five Japanese opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party. Although Abe successfully "passed the customs" with the majority opposition from the people, the two parties and the Japan Reform Association, Abe will still face many uncertainties in the face of the decisive battle of the Senate election to be held in late July.
In this regard, Hu Lingyuan analyzed that the election campaign is about to enter a climax. If the election is very beneficial to Abe at that time, it is not excluded that he wants to "bundle" the elections of the Senate and the House of Representatives at the same time, further consolidate his domestic status, and even serve as the fourth prime minister. Therefore, Abe has the motivation to use his relationship with South Korea to do some articles.
In addition, Abe’s appointment in the diplomatic field has recently been incompetent, so he intends to score points in diplomacy and win the favor of voters. According to Hu Lingyuan’s observation, Abe’s diplomacy with China has been relatively successful recently, and other directions are all promising.
"The G20 is going well, but Japan-US relations are not optimistic. Trump also mentioned the Japan-US security treaty, and the United States is expected to put pressure on Japan after the Japanese Senate election. " Hu Lingyuan said, "Russia has also found it difficult to break through Abe, with Putin ‘ Make friends with ’ It seems that the trick can’t be played anymore. Therefore, Abe’ s diplomatic pressure is still relatively large. "
Abe is not the only one facing internal pressure. Moon Jae in’s South Korea’s economic performance was mediocre, and the economic growth rate showed a red light. On April 2 this year, the data released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of the Republic of Korea showed that after the export data in February shrank at the fastest speed in the past three years, the total national export of South Korea in March was 47.11 billion US dollars, down 8.2% from the same period of last year, and fell for four consecutive months since December last year. On the 9th of the same month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted the list of countries whose economic growth rate will decline this year, and South Korea was among them.
"The Moon Jae in government is facing great pressure in the economic field. They promised to increase welfare, but the economic data is not optimistic at all. " Song Zhixun, a 27-year-old Korean youth, told The Paper, "If you lose points in diplomacy, it will be very unfavorable to Moon Jae in."
Japan and South Korea are not in a cold day, and Japan is suffocating.
In addition to the internal factors of the two countries, for the Japanese and Korean people, Japan’s rare sanctions are not completely unexpected. The two countries have been feuding for a long time because of historical issues, and they are deeply divided.
According to the Kyodo News Agency, a joint survey conducted by Genron NPO, a Japanese non-profit organization, and the Institute of East Asian Studies (EAI), an independent think tank in South Korea, from May to June showed that more than 60% of the respondents in both countries said that they thought the bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea had deteriorated, while only 6.1% of Japanese respondents and 3.7% of Korean respondents still thought that the relations between the two countries were "good".
Compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of Japanese respondents who thought bilateral relations were "bad" jumped to 63.5%, an increase of 23 percentage points, the highest level since the first survey in 2013.
Kyodo News analyzed that one of the main reasons for the deterioration of relations between the two countries is the position of the Supreme Court of Korea on wartime workers. Japan insists that South Korea gave up the right to claim compensation in the 1965 Basic Treaty between Korea and Japan, and Japan provided huge funds for "economic cooperation" to South Korea, including grants worth 300 million US dollars and loans worth 200 million US dollars over 10 years — — The total amount was 1.5 times that of the national budget of Korea at that time.
In this regard, Naiwang Muxia, a Japanese college student, told The Paper that South Korea could not forget what Japan did as a colony during World War II, but Japanese officials believed that it had provided economic compensation to South Korea after the war, so they did not want this history to be mentioned again. "Japan (the government) feels that we have solved this problem with money. If South Korea wants Japan to listen to their claims, let’s return the money to Japan first." Naiwang Muxia said.
The survey also showed that another reason for the rapid deterioration of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force-ROK relations was the incident that a South Korean navy destroyer irradiated a fire control radar on a Japanese patrol aircraft in December last year. According to the survey, more than 60% of the respondents in Japan and South Korea expressed confidence in the version of events provided by their governments. The Japanese side called the incident an "extremely dangerous act" and lodged a solemn protest with the ROK. The South Korean side explained that this was a normal combat operation, not aimed at Japan.
Based on the above-mentioned disputes, during the just-concluded G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, the leaders of Japan and South Korea did not hold bilateral talks, but only shook hands and took a group photo as the host and guest at the opening ceremony.
"The historical issue has dragged on for a long time, and Japan really feels that it has a bite in its heart ‘ Evil spirit ’ . The Japanese side feels that park geun-hye has signed an agreement with Japan on ‘ Comfort women ’ The agreement on the issue, but now South Korea does not recognize it. " Hu Lingyuan explained.
The Japanese government believes that South Korea’s reopening of the issue of forced labor by the Japanese army during World War II violated the Japan-South Korea Claims Agreement between the two countries. Suga Yoshihide, the Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary, rejected the proposal made by South Korea on June 19th, saying it was "totally unacceptable".
"In Japan’s view, since there is an agreement between the two governments, it cannot be said that the government will overturn the agreement as soon as the people are emotional. This makes Abe feel very faceless. " Hu Lingyuan said.
"In fact, it is understandable that Japan is a country with strong self-esteem." Song Zhixun, a 27-year-old Korean youth, gave his own understanding of the deterioration of relations between the two countries in an interview with The Paper. "They (Japan) are jealous of us as everyone knows, and (Korea) is obviously a colony of the former (Japan), but many industries and even cultures, stars and movies are occupied by South Korea. It must feel bad."
"Regarding Japan-ROK relations, there are two levels of government and people." Song Yue, director of the Korea Institute of East Asian Studies, who conducted the survey, said. On the other hand, Yasushi Kudo, the head of Genron NPO in Japan, also said that although most people think that Japan-ROK relations have deteriorated, the general impression of another country is not so bad. "Both governments should admit that their people want to improve this relationship." Kudo Jing said.
"We will hate the Japanese government, but we won’t hate the Japanese, especially the young people have no opinions on the Japanese." Song Zhixun said. Speaking of the trade sanctions that Japan has just announced against South Korea, Song Zhixun believes that this unfavorable situation for both sides will not last long. "It’s just temporary. (Japan and South Korea) was originally an alliance. In fact, there will be no reaction (relationship) no matter how bad it is."
