In the first quarter of this year, the A-share market was full of resilience.The Shanghai Composite Index ended its three consecutive quarters of decline and closed up 2.23% in the first quarter. Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 14.47% since February. The dual-creation sector also performed well, with the Growth Enterprise Market Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rising by 15.56% and 11.37% respectively since February. It is worth mentioning that,In the first quarter, the overall rise of blue-chip stocks in the market was outstanding, and low-altitude economic concept stocks rose, leading the market to develop in depth.
Various funds care for the first quarter, the market bottomed out and rebounded.
In January this year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted.Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.27% in January. On February 5th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 2,635.09 points, a five-year low and the lowest point in the first quarter. Just when the market was in a downturn, the "counterattack" started. On February 6, the market rebounded strongly.At the end of February, the 3000-point mark was recovered, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.13% in February.. In March, the Shanghai Composite Index touched 3090.05 points, the highest point in the first quarter. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3041.17 points at the end of March.It rose slightly by 0.86% in March..
At this point,In the first quarter, the K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index closed out the Xiaoyang line with a long shadow line, which rose by 2.23% in the first quarter, and ended the K-line with three consecutive yin.
The Shenzhen stock market fell even more in January this year. On February 5, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index hit the lowest point of 7683.63 points in the first quarter of this year, hitting a new low in the past five years. Subsequently, the market rebounded sharply. In February, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose by 13.61%, but it did not recover the lost ground in January. In March, Shenzhen Component Index reached the highest point of 9785.1 points in the first quarter, closed at 9400.85 points in March, and closed the Xiaoyang line in March, with a slight increase of 0.75%. Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index failed to turn red in the first quarter of this year, but closed a small negative line with a long shadow line, with a decline of 1.3% in the first quarter and a negative K line of 4 in the quarter.
Growth enterprise market index is the weakest. Growth enterprise market index closed at a small negative line in the first quarter, with a decrease of 3.87%, and the quarterly K line was even negative. Compared with the previous three quarters, the decline in the first quarter of this year is the smallest, and there is a long shadow line.
The A-share market bottomed out and rebounded, which is strongly related to the policies introduced by the regulatory authorities in the first quarter.Since the second half of last year, the market has continued to decline. The inflection point of the rebound began with the CSRC’s document "Strictly Punish the manipulation of malicious short selling in the market and effectively maintain the stable operation of the market". On February 6, the day after the release, the Shanghai Composite Index soared by 3.23%, hitting a new high in the past two years.
Since then, the CSRC has launched a policy of "combination boxing", which once again injected a "cardiotonic agent" into the A-share market.On March 15th, the CSRC issued four documents in a centralized manner, releasing policy signals to enhance supervision and promote the high-quality development of the capital market. Li Chao, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that these four documents are an organic whole, and systematically put forward policy measures from the aspects of issuance access, continuous supervision of listed companies, supervision of intermediary institutions, etc., highlighting "strengthening the foundation and strengthening the foundation" and "strict supervision and management".
All kinds of funds have obvious care for the market.On February 6th, central huijin announced that the company fully recognized the current allocation value of the A-share market, and recently expanded the range of holdings of trading open-end index funds (ETFs), and will continue to increase its holdings and scale, and resolutely safeguard the smooth operation of the capital market.[Previously reported: Today’s A shares are arrogant! The "national team" once again increased its holdings, and the growth enterprise market index rose by 6.7%.
According to data treasure statistics,In the first quarter, the net inflow of equity ETF funds reached 322.729 billion yuan, and the net inflow of eight ETF funds exceeded 10 billion yuan.Among them, the net inflow of E Fund CSI 300ETF, Huatai Bairui CSI 300ETF, Jiashi CSI 300ETF and Huaxia CSI 300ETF is more than 50 billion yuan.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that,Cash dividends of listed companies are increasing substantially.. According to the statistics of Securities Times and Data Treasure, as of March 28th, nearly 500 listed companies in the A-share market have issued profit distribution plans for 2023, and the total dividends in the first quarter, the first half and the third quarter of 2023 exceeded 917.6 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 43% of their net profit in 2023.
Compared with previous years, there are three major trends in A-share dividends in 2023: First, the cash dividend of Big White Horse shares has reached a new high; Second, the dividend rate of some high-quality companies has increased significantly, and technology companies frequently pay large dividends; Third, the frequency of market dividends has increased significantly.
Judging from the performance of the index, this year, the dividend index devoted to high dividend style stocks has risen significantly higher than the A-share market, which has won the favor of investors. Xun Yugen, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said that with the policy to increase the guidance of cash dividends for listed companies, it will help to cultivate the long-term investment concept of the market and enhance the attractiveness of the capital market.
Blue chip performance highlights the concept of low-altitude economy "take-off"
From the perspective of individual stocks, stocks fell as high as 80% in the first quarter. Why did the Shanghai Composite Index still rise in the first quarter?The reason is that the blue-chip stocks in the market are mainly rising, and over 70% of the top 100 stocks with the largest market value are rising. In the first quarter, the overall increase of stocks was not large, and only 40 stocks rose more than 50%. From the perspective of the sector, the rising stocks are mainly traditional industries, among which the stocks of oil, coal, household appliances and banks have increased greatly.
The good performance of large-cap stocks made the relevant indexes perform better in the first quarter.The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is dominated by large-cap stocks, rising by 3.1% in the first quarter. The Shanghai Composite Index also closed the positive line in the first quarter because large-cap stocks such as banks and oil were concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In the CSI scale index, the CSI 100 index, which reflects large-cap stocks, rose by 3.4% in the first quarter.
At the same time,Concepts such as low-altitude economy "take off".This year’s "Government Work Report" proposes to vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new quality productive forces. The hot spots of new quality productivity are rapidly catalyzed, and many concepts with scientific and technological attributes such as low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles and robots are active in turn.
Choice data shows that after excluding the newly listed stocks this year, Ai Ai Seiko, Jindun, Kelai Electromechanical, Weihaide, Wan Feng Aowei, Beyond Technology, Roboteco, Insai Group, Yongyue Technology and Xianggang Technology became the top ten bull stocks of A shares in the first quarter of this year.
Specifically, the new industrialization concept stock Ai Ai Seiko was the king of A-shares’ gains in the first quarter, during which the stock price accumulated the largest increase of 341.9%.Ai Ai Seiko’s main business is the research and development, production and sales of light conveyor belts. The company announced on January 31 that it expects to realize a net profit of 5.5 million yuan to 8 million yuan in 2023, turning losses into profits year on year. In addition, Ai Ai Seiko said on the interactive platform on March 7th that the film for solar cell packaging is mainly positioned in special niche products, such as Topcon special POE film, perovskite thermoplastic PO(polyolefin) film, heterogeneous carry-over optical film, etc. However, the company is still in the research and development stage and has not yet been put into production.
Jindun, a concept stock of low-altitude economy, has the largest cumulative increase of 330% in the same period, ranking second in the increase list, while Wan Feng Aowei and Yongyue Technology, the leaders of low-altitude economy, have increased by 269.8% and 218.54% respectively in the same period (ranking third and ninth respectively). Jindun Co., Ltd. announced on March 28th that the electric ducted fan products for flying cars that the company cooperated with Tsinghua University are still in the research and development stage and have not been applied. Wan Feng Aowei said in Interact on March 27th that the low-altitude navigation fixed-wing diamond aircraft has been delivered in batches in various application scenarios such as private flight, aviation school training and air transportation, and its main customers are flight schools, airlines, aviation clubs and private consumers. Yongyue Technology announced on March 26 that there is a significant uncertainty risk in the performance of the company’s drone contract, and there is no order in hand. Yongyue Technology announced on March 20 that as of the third quarter of 2023, the operating income of the company’s drone business was about 2.8 million yuan, which has not yet had a significant impact on the operating income of listed companies.
In the news, Sun Wensheng, deputy director of the General Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, said at the press conference held on March 29 that the Civil Aviation Administration will fully understand the great significance of developing low-altitude economy, implement the Provisional Regulations on Flight Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and improve the functions of the integrated management platform for unmanned aerial vehicles. Coordinate relevant parties to jointly strengthen the construction of service guarantee system for low-altitude flight activities, and continuously improve the service guarantee for plan approval, air traffic control, meteorology and communication of low-altitude flight activities.
A little more news. There is a high probability that the A-share market will rise steadily in the second quarter.
What will A-shares do in the second quarter?Great Wall Securities said that looking forward to the second quarter, China’s economic development goals and policy tone will be more aggressive, and policies on new quality and productivity may be accelerated, and A-shares still have high cost performance.
Morgan Stanley previously said thatGlobal funds are returning to the China stock market.As some funds’ bearish sentiment towards China market has eased, overseas fund management companies are rethinking their asset allocation in the whole Asian region. The research team of Goldman Sachs said that the A-share market in China remained over-allocated. The Goldman Sachs team predicts that the earnings per share of MSCI China and CSI 300 Index will increase by 8% to 9% in 2024.
Zhang Cuixia, chief investment consultant of Jufeng Investment, predicted that,In the second quarter, there is a greater probability that the market will go up steadily.From the perspective of economic fundamentals, there are many data highlights from the beginning of the year to the end of the first quarter: the growth rate of consumption has rebounded, the performance of service consumption has been bright, and exports have strengthened beyond expectations. A series of related data indicators show that the endogenous power of current economic recovery is already accumulating. From a policy perspective, the intensive introduction of a series of policy combination boxing is very obvious for boosting market confidence. From the perspective of funds, we can see that the funds of the national team are all bought in buy buy, and some major overseas institutions are also actively singing more about China’s economy.
"We expect the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the pressure of 3,200 points in the second quarter, forming a positive signal that the medium-term trend is getting stronger, and we also expect the GEM Index to return to above 2,000 points."Zhang Cuixia said that in terms of concept stocks, he prefers the big technology growth sector. Because the advantage of policy support is the internal driving force to promote the growth track of scientific and technological innovation, and at the national level, there is a driving force for market value management for "little giant" enterprises that specialize in novelty, including unicorn enterprises and listed companies of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises. Recently, the market has paid more attention to this. Since the rebound from the bottom, we have seen some relatively good policy-driven core industries related to artificial intelligence, online games, data centers, computing power leasing, semiconductor equipment materials, chips, 5G, new energy vehicles, driverless driving, etc. All performed well.
Besides,"It is not ruled out that in the first three trading days of Tomb-Sweeping Day, the theme stocks reappeared the possibility of a large bottom."Li Chun, chief investment officer of Jiangnan Avenue of Galaxy Securities, said that on the occasion of intensive disclosure in the annual report and the first quarterly report, investors are advised to stay away from the problem stocks with delisting risks and the stocks that lack performance support, and actively pay attention to the gold digger opportunities brought by the wrongful killing of low-valued high-quality blue chips.
(Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice)
China Business Daily is integrated from Xinmin Evening News, Upstream News, Securities Times and national business daily.
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