Beijing, December 7 (Reporter Li Jinlei) the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. The meeting set the tone for China’s economic development in 2022, including some new formulations, which release important signals and deserve attention.
Next year’s economic work should be steady and strive for progress.
How to do economic work next year? The general tone is very important. The meeting emphasized that,Next year’s economic work should focus on stability and strive for progress.
Compared with the previous year’s "striving for progress in stability", this time there are four more words: "Steady words are the first". What signal does this release?
Observers believe that more emphasis on steady growth is a realistic requirement under the new downward pressure on China’s economy.
The "Blue Book of Economy: Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation in 2022" released on December 6 pointed out that in 2021, under the situation of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, China’s economy generally showed a good recovery trend, but in the uncertain and unstable epidemic situation and external environment, the downward pressure on the economy increased, and there were many risks and challenges to maintain a stable economic operation. It is estimated that China’s economy will grow by 8.0% in 2021 and China’s economy will grow by about 5.3% in 2022.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of China Policy Science Research Association, said in an interview with the "China New Observation" column of Zhongxin.com that the downward pressure on the world economy is relatively large at present, and so is China’s economy. Therefore, to curb the downward trend, we must pay more attention to steady growth. In particular, the world economy is expected to slow down next year, and external demand will shrink. The good days of China’s foreign trade growth of more than 20% this year may be difficult to reproduce next year. Therefore, we must strive for progress in stability and strive to achieve high-quality development to calmly cope with the new international and domestic challenges facing the present and future.
Fiscal policy pays more attention to precision and sustainability.
The meeting stressed that macroeconomic policies should be sound and effective, and we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.A proactive fiscal policy should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy have not changed. However, fiscal policy clearly "pays more attention to accuracy and sustainability", which means that the focus has changed from the outside world.
Xu Hongcai believes that "precision" means more directional regulation and "drip irrigation", focusing on key and weak links such as small and micro enterprises, agriculture, rural areas and people’s livelihood; "Sustainability" means doing what you can, not over-leveraging, preventing too much debt and paying attention to preventing risks.
Feng Xuming, director of the Macro-Policy Research Office of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the reporter of "China New Observation" column of Zhongxin.com that under the current downward pressure on the economy, fiscal policy needs to continue to be active and improve its efficiency. On the one hand, we will continue to maintain an appropriate deficit scale and appropriately move forward the pace of fiscal expenditure; On the other hand, it is necessary to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, increase support for "two new and one heavy" construction, technological transformation, productivity greening and other fields, help the supply side to consolidate the foundation and cultivate the yuan through fiscal expenditure, and at the same time expand supply and improve quality in public services such as education, culture, sports, old-age care and medical care.
Promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry
For next year’s real estate, the meeting stressed that,It is necessary to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry.
The central government has made new changes in the real estate adjustment next year. Compared with last year’s "promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market", this time it has added a new goal, that is, a virtuous circle.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the reporter of "China New Observation" column of Zhongxin.com that this statement is very important and is a signal to give clear support to real estate. It shows that the virtuous circle of the real estate market is crucial. A bad market will cause the risk of thunderstorm of housing enterprises, and the risk of housing enterprises will be passed on to buyers. Therefore, this "virtuous circle" is an important expression of the real estate industry chain and has a very strong signal significance.
Xu Hongcai believes that the real estate adjustment has been relatively large since this year, and some enterprises that blindly expanded in the past and were lax in financial discipline have stumbled in this adjustment. It is very important for the real estate market to gradually restore calm and stability and prevent ups and downs. After all, real estate plays an important role in the economy.
Feng Xuming said that some indicators such as real estate investment, sales and land transfer have shown signs of slowing down recently. It is necessary to carefully manage the real estate market in the fourth-and fifth-tier cities, do a good job in stabilizing housing prices and expectations, and avoid a hard landing. In particular, it is necessary to avoid excessive price reduction and promotion of real estate enterprises to supplement liquidity under the pressure of "three red lines", which will trigger downward pressure on housing prices in some fourth-and fifth-tier cities, and further aggravate the debt risk of the real estate industry.
Realize a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry and finance
In addition to real estate, there is also a virtuous circle that is also concerned.
The meeting stressed that science and technology policies should be accelerated, key core technologies should continue to be tackled, national strategic scientific and technological strength should be strengthened, and the dominant position of enterprises in innovation should be strengthened.Realize a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry and finance.
Xu Hongcai pointed out that to realize a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry and finance, it is necessary to change the fragmented state of the past three, and form a linkage. Scientific and technological innovation cannot be overemphasized, industrial transformation and upgrading can not be overemphasized, and it can not be overemphasized that finance can improve the multi-level financial service system and improve the effectiveness of financial services. However, it is the first time that the three forms a linkage and a smooth cycle.
Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, recently publicly stated that China has reached a critical period when industry, science and technology and finance need to be transformed into a virtuous circle. Whether this cycle is established well or not is related to the quality and efficiency of China’s development in the new era. It may be the key to the future to form a virtuous circle among the three, and promote the cycle by building a platform.
Chen Daofu believes that in order to achieve a virtuous circle between science and technology, industry and finance, we need to "see" and "understand" each other. In the three fields of science and technology, industry and finance, many outstanding achievements are equivalent to "black boxes" compared with other fields. Therefore, in order to support scientific and technological innovation, finance should first "see" scientific and technological achievements, "understand" and evaluate their potential market value in the future. At this time, bridges are needed, that is, bridges between technology and industry, or between technology and finance, or between industry and finance.
Promoting the new birth policy has been effective.
The meeting pointed out that social policies should cover the bottom line of people’s livelihood.Implement the employment priority policy, promote the new birth policy to be effective, and promote the national overall planning of basic old-age insurance.Improve the system of providing basic public services in permanent residence.
In Xu Hongcai’s view, the meeting specifically mentioned "promoting the new birth policy to be effective", which is a bright spot. The implementation of the new birth policy is related to the long-term development of the Chinese nation. At present, the birth rate in China is not going up, which is a big problem. Therefore, it will have a profound impact on the medium and long-term economic and social development as soon as possible.
Recently, many places across the country have intensively revised family planning regulations, increased maternity benefits and extended maternity leave. Many provinces have extended maternity leave from the past 30 days to 60 days, and some provinces have extended maternity leave for 60 days or even 90 days, and increased parental leave.
As usual, the Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon after Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. By then, the context of China’s economic work in 2022 will be clearer. (End)
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