On the occasion of the Chinese New Year in the Year of the Tiger, Zhixun launched a specially planned "New Year Observation", and interviewed many well-known international relations scholars to spend the year of knowledge with you. What kind of new year will we usher in when the century-old changes and the world epidemic overlap and the world enters a new period of turmoil and change? How should we face the new year? The second issue of Chinese New Year Watch brought an exclusive interview with Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University of China. The interview was written by Zhu Endi, a reporter from the Beijing News Station.
[Reporter’s Notes]
Teacher Shi Yinhong has been deeply involved in the field of international relations for nearly forty years, and has published many books and academic articles, which is regarded as a "big coffee" in the circle. He used to be a counselor in the State Council and made suggestions directly to the central decision-making level. The weight of his views is self-evident.
I have noticed that Teacher Shi recently stated that Sino-US relations as a whole will "fluctuate downwards" and that the attitude of the United States towards China is deteriorating. This time, I was lucky enough to have an exclusive interview with Mr. Shi, and the theme was centered on Sino-US relations. I hope to understand why Mr. Shi made the above judgment in a more complete context, and also hope to understand his latest observation and interpretation of the world today.
Although the conversation with the teacher was not long, the content was "full of dry goods", and I remembered a piece of paper full of keywords only. On the whole, Mr. Shi thinks that in the foreseeable future, the United States will continue to suppress China, and its whole "sector" or "battlefield" has been rolled out. Teacher Shi stressed that the most serious crisis between China and the United States in the future will be in the Taiwan Strait, and China’s ambassador to the United States Qin Gang’s recent public statement on the Taiwan Strait issue also illustrates this problem in a sense.
In the interview, Mr. Shi repeatedly mentioned this important time node in April 2021. He believes that since April last year, the Biden administration’s China policy has always been to maintain "tough competition" while avoiding direct conflicts. When I asked Mr. Shi Yinhong if he thought his judgment on Sino-US relations was "pessimistic", he replied, "This is not pessimism or optimism, but seeking truth from facts", which left a very deep impression on me.
[Interview Record]
China’s attitude on the Ukrainian issue: "Pro-Russia" is not accurate.
Zhu Endi: Recently, US Secretary of State Blinken had a telephone conversation with State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China. The outside world thought that the signal released by this call was relatively positive. What do you think of this? Why does Blinken seek to talk to China at this time?
Shi Yinhong:The United States and its allies, especially NATO, are facing the Ukrainian crisis. It should be said that the situation is very tense, but there are also many uncertain factors, because no one knows what Putin intends to do.
Under this circumstance, the United States is willing to talk to China, one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, and China, which has close ties with Ukraine, especially with Russia. I noticed that this call was not initiated by China, because China should be said to be cautious on the Ukrainian issue. So far, China has not taken any initiative (initiative) purely from China to take the initiative to talk about the Ukrainian issue with other big countries.
According to extensive reports from outside, the meaning of the call is very clear: Blinken demands that China, as one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, at least take a "neutral attitude" towards the Ukrainian issue. As far as the United States is concerned, it is understandable that China and Russia have significantly improved their comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation for some time under the almost comprehensive "competition" between China and the United States and between Russia and the United States. In my words, this relationship has reached a "paramilitary alliance".
It is widely reported that Wang Yi’s position is most important on two points. First, Russia’s legitimate security concerns must not only be paid attention to, but also be resolved. This statement must be widely interpreted as "pro-Russian" of China as a whole. Of course, this is not about Ukraine, because on the Ukrainian issue, Wang Yi went on to say that all parties should remain calm and all parties should not take any actions that aggravate the crisis. Of course, "all parties" include Russia, which means that China will not add fuel to the fire on the Ukrainian crisis for any reason. China hopes that all parties can maintain stability in Europe, which is not only beneficial to Europe, but also will not harm China’s vital interests.
In a word, the situation on the Ukrainian issue is very serious, and it is precisely because of the seriousness that China, which has always advocated peace and maintained the peace situation in the world, will continue to be quite cautious on the Ukrainian issue. At the same time, I believe that China will do its best to maintain the vital comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and China.
China will never accept Biden’s wishful thinking about China in "tough competition"
Zhu Endi: When the Biden administration deals with its relations with China, some officials will say something gentle, while others will say something radical. How did you come?
Shi Yinhong:Sometimes the United States needs to prevent the tension between itself and China from increasing the risk of military conflict, so sometimes it speaks softly on some issues, and sometimes it speaks very strongly. The pressure, deterrence and partial sanctions imposed by the United States on China are almost comprehensive. Therefore, it cannot be said that there are differences among senior officials in the US administration. Personally, I have not seen such a phenomenon.
Zhu Endi: As you just said, Biden’s government officials sometimes take a gentle and sometimes tough stance. What do you want to achieve?
Shi Yinhong:Since April 2021, the first rule of Biden’s China policy is that no matter how "tough competition", in Sullivan’s words, no matter how "Sino-US military conflict" can break out. First, it can’t break out because of the Taiwan Province issue, and second, it can’t break out because of the South China Sea and the East China Sea issue. This means that the United States should deepen and broaden its almost comprehensive support for Taiwan Province, including military support, while ensuring absolute security.
So far, China has resolutely refused to accept this, so Ambassador Qin Gang (January 28th) emphasized it very much in Washington, and received extensive attention from American media and world media. Because he made it very clear that he was tougher than anything before, that is to say, if the Taiwan Province authorities, encouraged by the United States, went down the road of "Taiwan independence", the possibility that the two great powers of China and the United States would fall into a military conflict could not be ruled out, which was the toughest (a gesture).
Therefore, China will never make such a statement as "absolutely guaranteeing the non-use of force on the Taiwan Province issue". Otherwise, the United States will continue to deepen and broaden its comprehensive support for Taiwan Province without scruple, and the Democratic Progressive Party authorities will also accelerate their progress on the road of "Taiwan independence" without scruple. China will never make such a guarantee.
Junendi：What you just said "no conflict" is a kind of "bottom line" of the United States. What challenges do you think China and the United States are facing at present?
Shi Yinhong:The United States hopes to deepen and broaden its support for Taiwan Province in an all-round way in a safe way without causing military conflict between China and the United States, which China absolutely does not accept. For this reason, the United States has repeatedly announced two tools, the first is to deter China with deterrence, and the second is to diplomacy with China. But in any case, China will not make such a conviction that the United States and Taiwan can be convinced that "Chinese mainland will not use force on the Taiwan Province issue under any circumstances", because this conviction is absolutely and directly harmful to China’s fundamental interests.
(The United States) basically maintains the so-called "strategic ambiguity", that is to say, it only emphasizes that the United States will help Taiwan Province maintain its self-defense capability, but hesitates, without explicitly saying whether the United States will use armed forces to intervene if war breaks out in Taiwan Province. However, a few months ago, Campbell, the "Indo-Pacific" coordinator of the National Security Council of the United States, said that "strategic clarity has many disadvantages, but if war breaks out, it will definitely expand." The latter half of the sentence shows that the United States is prepared to improve its strategic clarity.
The United States has scruples about escalating its confrontation with China, but it will not ease.
Zhu Endi: Do you think this is a dangerous situation?
Shi Yinhong:I’m not saying that danger is not dangerous, but the possibility of a Sino-US military conflict on the Taiwan Province issue is increasing compared with one year, two years ago or even before April 2021.
Zhu Endi: Do you think the Biden administration’s China policy is continuous and consistent?
Shi Yinhong:Generally speaking, it is consistent from Biden’s first day in office to the present year. However, at the level of operation and situation, due to various reasons, especially the U.S. fleeing from Afghanistan, the United States is once again facing a severe blow from the COVID-19 epidemic, and the current tense situation in Ukraine, the United States has great scruples about continuing to escalate its confrontation with China.
June: So (the United States) has some fine-tuning?
Shi Yinhong:This is also very complicated. Since its withdrawal from Afghanistan, basically speaking, the United States has not significantly upgraded its posture toward China, but at the same time it has not significantly downgraded its posture toward China. Especially since the video call between the heads of state of China and the United States on November 16, 2021, the United States has taken a series of measures in almost all directions, which is increasing the possibility that the United States will continue to escalate its tension with China in the future, or reducing the possibility of not escalating its tension with China.
Zhu Endi: In what specific areas will (the United States) increase the possibility of tension with China?
Shi Yinhong:A lot! The United States announced a "diplomatic boycott" of the Winter Olympics; The United States, together with Mexican, Canadian and European countries, also stressed in a very high-profile way that the supply chain should be reorganized for China. In addition, the United States has issued a series of policies to impose sanctions on China’s high-tech enterprises, including China’s high-tech research institutions, very frequently and intensively; The United States has stepped up large-scale military exercises with Japan and Australia, India and Britain in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Several aircraft carriers and other warships have conducted large-scale military exercises aimed at shocking China. The United States conducts so-called "freedom of navigation" actions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Province Strait as usual; The United States has stepped up its cooperation with the four countries of "Indo-Pacific" and with some powerful countries other than the four countries of "Indo-Pacific", especially Britain.
I think the United States is becoming more and more aware that China is America’s number one enemy in the short, medium and long term, no matter what interference there is, no matter whether there is a Ukrainian crisis or not.
Second, the United States has judged that Taiwan Province has great strategic interests and great so-called "American prestige" considerations for the United States. At the same time, the United States recognizes that it is crucial to form alliances with other maritime developed countries, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, with Japan and Australia. The United States is making its military alliance with these countries more specific, more detailed and more practical. At the same time, the US military itself, as the primary reliance of the United States in the "Indo-Pacific" region, is also constantly strengthening the quantity and quality of its presence in "Indo-Pacific".
The future of Sino-US relations is not pessimistic and optimistic, but realistic.
Zhu Endi: Do you think that being tough on China is a kind of "political correctness" of the United States?
Shi Yinhong:This has been the case for a long time. There are no political parties, no members of Congress and no president in the United States who dare to show obvious so-called "weakness" towards China.
Zhu Endi: How will this position of the United States affect the communication between China and the United States?
Shi Yinhong:The communication between China and the United States is still there, but most of it has become fruitless or even fruitless. Because the United States emphasizes the need to "unconditionally guarantee that China and the United States will absolutely prevent military conflicts" and because of China’s considerations I mentioned just now, China is now taking a less positive attitude towards high-level military communication. It is precisely because the United States wants China to make a commitment not to use force under any circumstances, but not to use force on the Taiwan Province issue is a commitment that China cannot make. Generally speaking, some specific positions of the U.S. government are seriously hindering the communication between China and the United States, which was really effective.
Zhu Endi: What do you think is the most urgent challenge facing China-US relations in 2022?
Shi Yinhong:The most urgent challenge is Taiwan Province. In 2022, there are many signs that it is possible or even possible that the military confrontation between China and the United States over Taiwan Province will continue to intensify or even escalate, especially the Taiwan Province authorities and the Japanese government have played a very important role in fueling it.
Zhu Endi: As you have always said, we should be strategic and prudent. Is the United States prudent?
Shi Yinhong:I think if the strategy is prudent, since April 2021, the Biden administration has repeatedly stressed that there must be no military conflict between China and the United States, which cannot be said to be strategic imprudence. However, some of its other measures fully show that many aspects of the strategy are not prudent, so this is a very complicated issue.
Zhu Endi: So you may be pessimistic about the development of Sino-US relations in the coming year or even many years, right?
Shi Yinhong:This is neither pessimism nor optimism, it is seeking truth from facts. At present, judging from the signs we have, the struggle and confrontation between China and the United States may intensify in the short, medium and even long term.
Author | Zhu Endi, reporter of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Beijing
Editor | Zhang Sinan, direct news chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV, special commentator of Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
Thematic Coordination | Zeng Zijing, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News
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